Gameweek 4 brief early · generated 9:15pm UK time, Friday 4 September · model 1.0.0
Coyle out, Egan in and Rudoni out, Stach in. Captain Stach.
Coyle out, Egan in and Rudoni out, Stach in. Then set Stach as captain and B.Fernandes as vice captain, and match the line up below.
Transfers
Reasoning: Coyle out, unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing, projects only 7.5 points over 5 weeks. Rudoni out, projects only 10.5 points over 5 weeks. Egan (HUL, £4.0m) projects 34.3 points over the next 5 weeks; next: CHE (A), then NEW (A), then EVE (H); no rival owns him, so he gains ground on the league if he scores. Stach (LEE, £6.0m) projects 35.3 points over the next 5 weeks; next: NEW (H), then CRY (H), then ARS (A); 1 of 11 rivals already own him
Team (3-5-2)
Alternatives considered
Coyle → O'Shea, Rudoni → Stach · score 51.07
Coyle out, unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing, projects only 7.5 points over 5 weeks. Rudoni out, projects only 10.5 points over 5 weeks. O'Shea (IPS, £4.0m) projects 34.2 points over the next 5 weeks; next: CRY (A), then EVE (A), then FUL (H); 1 of 11 rivals already own him. Stach (LEE, £6.0m) projects 35.3 points over the next 5 weeks; next: NEW (H), then CRY (H), then ARS (A); 1 of 11 rivals already own him
Ouattara → Egan, Rudoni → Stach · score 50.97
Ouattara out, projects only 4.1 points over 5 weeks. Rudoni out, projects only 10.5 points over 5 weeks. Egan (HUL, £4.0m) projects 34.3 points over the next 5 weeks; next: CHE (A), then NEW (A), then EVE (H); no rival owns him, so he gains ground on the league if he scores. Stach (LEE, £6.0m) projects 35.3 points over the next 5 weeks; next: NEW (H), then CRY (H), then ARS (A); 1 of 11 rivals already own him
Do nothing (bank the transfer) · score 0.80
Make no transfer and carry 3 into next week as 4 (the cap is 5).
Ouattara → O'Shea, Rudoni → Stach · score 50.95
Ouattara out, projects only 4.1 points over 5 weeks. Rudoni out, projects only 10.5 points over 5 weeks. O'Shea (IPS, £4.0m) projects 34.2 points over the next 5 weeks; next: CRY (A), then EVE (A), then FUL (H); 1 of 11 rivals already own him. Stach (LEE, £6.0m) projects 35.3 points over the next 5 weeks; next: NEW (H), then CRY (H), then ARS (A); 1 of 11 rivals already own him
Ouattara → Egan, Coyle → O'Shea · score 50.60
Ouattara out, projects only 4.1 points over 5 weeks. Coyle out, unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing, projects only 7.5 points over 5 weeks. Egan (HUL, £4.0m) projects 34.3 points over the next 5 weeks; next: CHE (A), then NEW (A), then EVE (H); no rival owns him, so he gains ground on the league if he scores. O'Shea (IPS, £4.0m) projects 34.2 points over the next 5 weeks; next: CRY (A), then EVE (A), then FUL (H); 1 of 11 rivals already own him
Ouattara → O'Shea, Coyle → Egan · score 50.60
Ouattara out, projects only 4.1 points over 5 weeks. Coyle out, unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing, projects only 7.5 points over 5 weeks. O'Shea (IPS, £4.0m) projects 34.2 points over the next 5 weeks; next: CRY (A), then EVE (A), then FUL (H); 1 of 11 rivals already own him. Egan (HUL, £4.0m) projects 34.3 points over the next 5 weeks; next: CHE (A), then NEW (A), then EVE (H); no rival owns him, so he gains ground on the league if he scores
Scores are projected points gained over the next eight weeks (later weeks discounted), minus any hit, adjusted for risk and league context.
Why, confidence and risks
Ren is 3rd of 12 in Velocita FC, 34 points behind Damo FC with 35 gameweeks left; the gap is real but not desperate, so the plan leans slightly towards picks the rivals do not own. Coyle out, unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing, projects only 7.5 points over 5 weeks. Rudoni out, projects only 10.5 points over 5 weeks. Egan (HUL, £4.0m) projects 34.3 points over the next 5 weeks; next: CHE (A), then NEW (A), then EVE (H); no rival owns him, so he gains ground on the league if he scores. Stach (LEE, £6.0m) projects 35.3 points over the next 5 weeks; next: NEW (H), then CRY (H), then ARS (A); 1 of 11 rivals already own him. Stach is captain because he has the week's best projection (7.1 points expected, NEW (H)). Hold all chips. No trigger this week: the bench is not strong enough for Bench Boost, no captain option is a standout for Triple Captain, and the squad does not need a rebuild.
High confidence (82%): early season, small samples behind the numbers